2026 NFL Playoff Odds

Every team’s chances to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl.

Updated Nov 6, 2026, 3:30 AM ET

At a glance

Playoff odds since the preseason

Biggest gain: +42percentage pts; Bears; 46% → 88%
Biggest drop: −55percentage pts; Eagles; 61% → 6%

Super Bowl odds since the preseason

Biggest gain: +8percentage pts; Bills; 7% → 15%
Biggest drop: −8percentage pts; Seahawks; 15% → 7%

Make playoffs

Chance to reach the postseason, at the start of the season and now.

PreseasonNow

Rank	Team		Pre-season to current
1	Bills6-1	71%	Preseason 71% → now 96%	96%	+25pp	1668	21
2	Jaguars6-2	64%	Preseason 64% → now 95%	95%	+31pp	1638	32
tied for 3	Broncos6-2	74%	Preseason 74% → now 94%	94%	+20pp	1637	31
tied for 3	49ers6-1	56%	Preseason 56% → now 94%	94%	+38pp	1624	22
5	Vikings6-1	57%	Preseason 57% → now 92%	92%	+35pp	1618	5
6	Bears6-2	46%	Preseason 46% → now 88%	88%	+42pp	1618	2
7	Steelers6-2	47%	Preseason 47% → now 82%	82%	+35pp	1572	14
8	Bengals5-2	41%	Preseason 41% → now 80%	80%	+39pp	1566	30
9	Lions5-2	62%	Preseason 62% → now 79%	79%	+17pp	1580	11
10	Seahawks4-4	87%	Preseason 87% → now 78%	78%	−9pp	1631	25
11	Patriots5-3	67%	Preseason 67% → now 77%	77%	+10pp	1602	9
12	Chiefs5-2	39%	Preseason 39% → now 71%	71%	+32pp	1552	18
13	Rams4-4	71%	Preseason 71% → now 60%	60%	−11pp	1586	7
14	Packers5-3	46%	Preseason 46% → now 55%	55%	+9pp	1537	1
15	Giants4-2-1	21%	Preseason 21% → now 47%	47%	+26pp	1456	12
16	Browns5-3	26%	Preseason 26% → now 38%	38%	+12pp	1442	27
tied for 17	Buccaneers3-5	38%	Preseason 38% → now 26%	26%	−12pp	1495	26
tied for 17	Texans2-5	75%	Preseason 75% → now 26%	26%	−49pp	1517	29
19	Ravens4-5	60%	Preseason 60% → now 23%	23%	−37pp	1475	20
20	Falcons3-5	36%	Preseason 36% → now 18%	18%	−18pp	1459	19
21	Panthers3-4	21%	Preseason 21% → now 15%	15%	−6pp	1429	6
tied for 22	Commanders2-4-1	30%	Preseason 30% → now 14%	14%	−16pp	1434	15
tied for 22	Cowboys3-5	28%	Preseason 28% → now 14%	14%	−14pp	1444	13
24	Raiders4-4	8%	Preseason 8% → now 12%	12%	+4pp	1409	10
tied for 25	Cardinals3-5	12%	Preseason 12% → now 8%	8%	−4pp	1391	23
tied for 25	Saints2-5	29%	Preseason 29% → now 8%	8%	−21pp	1401	24
27	Eagles2-6	61%	Preseason 61% → now 6%	6%	−55pp	1418	17
28	Colts2-6	33%	Preseason 33% → now 5%	5%	−28pp	1402	28
29	Chargers0-7	47%	Preseason 47% → now <1%	<1%	−46pp	1395	16
30	Dolphins1-6	28%	Preseason 28% → now <1%	<1%	−27pp	1373	3
31	Jets2-6	10%	Preseason 10% → now <1%	<1%	−9pp	1335	4
32	Titans1-7	11%	Preseason 11% → now <1%	<1%	−11pp	1297	8

Now: Current
Chg: Change, in percentage points (pp)
Rem SoS: Remaining SoS Rank (1 = hardest)

Race for the #1 seed

Each team’s chance of finishing as its conference’s #1 seed, over the season.

AFC

NFC

Win Super Bowl

Chance to win the title, at the start of the season and now.

PreseasonNow

Rank	Team		Pre-season to current
1	Bills6-1	7%	Preseason 7% → now 15%	15%	+8pp	1668	21
tied for 2	49ers6-1	4%	Preseason 4% → now 10%	10%	+6pp	1624	22
tied for 2	Vikings6-1	4%	Preseason 4% → now 10%	10%	+6pp	1618	5
tied for 2	Jaguars6-2	5%	Preseason 5% → now 10%	10%	+5pp	1638	32
tied for 2	Broncos6-2	8%	Preseason 8% → now 10%	10%	+2pp	1637	31
6	Bears6-2	3%	Preseason 3% → now 8%	8%	+5pp	1618	2
7	Seahawks4-4	15%	Preseason 15% → now 7%	7%	−8pp	1631	25
tied for 8	Lions5-2	4%	Preseason 4% → now 5%	5%	+1pp	1580	11
tied for 8	Patriots5-3	6%	Preseason 6% → now 5%	5%	−1pp	1602	9
tied for 10	Steelers6-2	2%	Preseason 2% → now 4%	4%	+2pp	1572	14
tied for 10	Rams4-4	8%	Preseason 8% → now 4%	4%	−4pp	1586	7
tied for 10	Bengals5-2	1%	Preseason 1% → now 4%	4%	+3pp	1566	30
13	Chiefs5-2	2%	Preseason 2% → now 3%	3%	+1pp	1552	18
14	Packers5-3	3%	Preseason 3% → now 2%	2%	−1pp	1537	1
15	Texans2-5	8%	Preseason 8% → now <1%	<1%	−7pp	1517	29
16	Giants4-2-1	<1%	Preseason <1% → now <1%	<1%	0pp	1456	12
17	Buccaneers3-5	1%	Preseason 1% → now <1%	<1%	0pp	1495	26
18	Browns5-3	<1%	Preseason <1% → now <1%	<1%	−1pp	1442	27
19	Ravens4-5	4%	Preseason 4% → now <1%	<1%	−4pp	1475	20
20	Falcons3-5	1%	Preseason 1% → now <1%	<1%	−1pp	1459	19
21	Commanders2-4-1	1%	Preseason 1% → now <1%	<1%	−1pp	1434	15
22	Cowboys3-5	<1%	Preseason <1% → now <1%	<1%	−1pp	1444	13
23	Panthers3-4	<1%	Preseason <1% → now <1%	<1%	−1pp	1429	6
24	Raiders4-4	<1%	Preseason <1% → now <1%	<1%	0pp	1409	10
25	Saints2-5	<1%	Preseason <1% → now <1%	<1%	−1pp	1401	24
26	Eagles2-6	4%	Preseason 4% → now <1%	<1%	−4pp	1418	17
27	Colts2-6	1%	Preseason 1% → now <1%	<1%	−1pp	1402	28
28	Cardinals3-5	<1%	Preseason <1% → now <1%	<1%	0pp	1391	23
29	Chargers0-7	2%	Preseason 2% → now <1%	<1%	−2pp	1395	16
30	Dolphins1-6	<1%	Preseason <1% → now <1%	<1%	−1pp	1373	3
31	Jets2-6	<1%	Preseason <1% → now <1%	<1%	0pp	1335	4
32	Titans1-7	<1%	Preseason <1% → now <1%	<1%	0pp	1297	8

Now: Current
Chg: Change, in percentage points (pp)
Rem SoS: Remaining SoS Rank (1 = hardest)