Updated Monday Jul. 13

2026 MLB Team Win Projections

MLB team win projections tracked from the preseason to current day.

RankingsSoSWinsPlayoffsChamps
TEAM GURU
RANK		 PRESEASON
PROJECTION		 CURRENT
PROJECTION		 CHANGE
1
DodgersLAD61-36
1st 96.8 100.3
+ 3.5
2
BrewersMIL59-37
2nd 85.6 95.9
+ 10.3
3
RaysTB56-38
6th 79.6 90.7
+ 11.1
4
BravesATL55-40
4th 86.4 90.7
+ 4.3
5
YankeesNYY54-42
3rd 88.6 90.2
+ 1.6
6
CubsCHC54-42
5th 86.8 88.5
+ 1.7
7
PhilliesPHI54-43
7th 88.3 88.0
- 0.3
8
GuardiansCLE51-46
12th 79.0 83.6
+ 4.6
9
MarlinsMIA52-45
11th 74.6 83.0
+ 8.4
10
RangersTEX49-47
16th 83.4 82.5
- 0.9
11
MarinersSEA48-49
10th 88.0 82.5
- 5.5
12
PiratesPIT50-47
9th 79.7 82.4
+ 2.7
13
CardinalsSTL50-45
13th 74.1 82.1
+ 8
14
DiamondbacksARI49-47
15th 81.3 81.8
+ 0.5
15
Red SoxBOS46-48
8th 85.8 81.6
- 4.2
16
PadresSD48-48
18th 83.4 80.7
- 2.7
17
White SoxCHW50-45
20th 68.7 80.6
+ 11.9
18
AstrosHOU47-51
21st 83.0 79.1
- 3.9
19
TigersDET44-52
17th 84.0 79.1
- 4.9
20
TwinsMIN48-49
24th 76.8 79.0
+ 2.2
21
Blue JaysTOR45-51
14th 86.3 78.8
- 7.5
22
NationalsWSH48-49
22nd 67.9 78.0
+ 10.1
23
OriolesBAL46-51
19th 82.5 78.0
- 4.5
24
RedsCIN43-52
25th 79.9 74.5
- 5.4
25
MetsNYM40-57
23rd 87.9 72.5
- 15.4
26
GiantsSF41-55
26th 81.2 72.3
- 8.9
27
AthleticsOAK41-55
28th 76.0 70.5
- 5.5
28
RoyalsKC38-59
27th 81.8 68.9
- 12.9
29
AngelsLAA38-59
29th 71.5 66.9
- 4.6
30
RockiesCOL39-59
30th 60.9 64.6
+ 3.7

How We Calculate: Our MLB win projections are calculated by averaging predictions from FanGraphs, Massey Ratings and Team Rankings. The table above shows the preseason and current win projections for each team. The change in these two predictions is also shown.