Updated Saturday May. 16
2026 MLB Team Win Projections
MLB team win projections tracked from the preseason to current day.
| TEAM | GURU RANK |
PRESEASON PROJECTION |
CURRENT PROJECTION |
CHANGE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
DodgersLAD27-18
|
2nd | 96.8 | 97.4 |
+ 0.6
|
| 2 |
BravesATL31-14
|
1st | 86.4 | 96.3 |
+ 9.9
|
| 3 |
YankeesNYY28-17
|
3rd | 88.6 | 94.8 |
+ 6.2
|
| 4 |
CubsCHC29-16
|
4th | 86.8 | 93.3 |
+ 6.5
|
| 5 |
BrewersMIL25-17
|
5th | 85.6 | 89.7 |
+ 4.1
|
| 6 |
RaysTB29-14
|
6th | 79.6 | 89.1 |
+ 9.5
|
| 7 |
PadresSD26-18
|
7th | 83.4 | 84.9 |
+ 1.5
|
| 8 |
MarinersSEA22-24
|
8th | 88.0 | 84.8 |
- 3.2
|
| 9 |
PhilliesPHI22-23
|
9th | 88.3 | 83.5 |
- 4.8
|
| 10 |
RangersTEX21-23
|
11th | 83.4 | 82.8 |
- 0.6
|
| 11 |
PiratesPIT24-21
|
10th | 79.7 | 82.6 |
+ 2.9
|
| 12 |
GuardiansCLE24-22
|
12th | 79.0 | 82.2 |
+ 3.2
|
| 13 |
CardinalsSTL26-18
|
13th | 74.1 | 80.9 |
+ 6.8
|
| 14 |
DiamondbacksARI21-22
|
16th | 81.3 | 80.9 |
- 0.4
|
| 15 |
TigersDET20-25
|
18th | 84.0 | 80.4 |
- 3.6
|
| 16 |
AthleticsOAK23-21
|
17th | 76.0 | 79.9 |
+ 3.9
|
| 17 |
Blue JaysTOR19-25
|
14th | 86.3 | 79.6 |
- 6.7
|
| 18 |
RedsCIN24-21
|
19th | 79.9 | 79.2 |
- 0.7
|
| 19 |
Red SoxBOS18-26
|
15th | 85.8 | 78.8 |
- 7
|
| 20 |
MetsNYM18-26
|
20th | 87.9 | 78.8 |
- 9.1
|
| 21 |
OriolesBAL20-25
|
21st | 82.5 | 77.3 |
- 5.2
|
| 22 |
RoyalsKC19-26
|
22nd | 81.8 | 76.9 |
- 4.9
|
| 23 |
TwinsMIN20-25
|
26th | 76.8 | 75.9 |
- 0.9
|
| 24 |
GiantsSF18-27
|
24th | 81.2 | 75.2 |
- 6
|
| 25 |
AstrosHOU18-28
|
28th | 83.0 | 74.9 |
- 8.1
|
| 26 |
MarlinsMIA20-25
|
23rd | 74.6 | 73.6 |
- 1
|
| 27 |
White SoxCHW22-22
|
27th | 68.7 | 73.1 |
+ 4.4
|
| 28 |
NationalsWSH22-23
|
25th | 67.9 | 72.5 |
+ 4.6
|
| 29 |
AngelsLAA16-29
|
29th | 71.5 | 67.8 |
- 3.7
|
| 30 |
RockiesCOL17-28
|
30th | 60.9 | 62.2 |
+ 1.3
|
How We Calculate: Our MLB win projections are calculated by averaging predictions from FanGraphs, Massey Ratings and Team Rankings. The table above shows the preseason and current win projections for each team. The change in these two predictions is also shown.
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