Updated Thursday Jul. 2
2026 MLB Playoff Odds
MLB team playoff odds tracked from the preseason to current day.
| TEAM | GURU RANK |
PRESEASON PROJECTIONPRESEASON PROJ |
CURRENT PROJECTIONCURRENT PROJ |
CHANGE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
BrewersMIL53-31
|
2nd | 46.7% | >99% | + 52.4% |
| 2 |
DodgersLAD56-31
|
1st | 98.1% | >99% | + 0.9% |
| 3 |
YankeesNYY48-38
|
4th | 74.9% | 97.3% | + 22.5% |
| 4 |
BravesATL50-34
|
3rd | 68.5% | 95.8% | + 27.4% |
| 5 |
RaysTB50-33
|
7th | 21.5% | 94.3% | + 72.9% |
| 6 |
PhilliesPHI49-38
|
6th | 70.4% | 88.2% | + 17.9% |
| 7 |
CubsCHC49-38
|
5th | 62.0% | 84.8% | + 22.9% |
| 8 |
MarinersSEA44-43
|
8th | 78.2% | 79.1% | + 1% |
| 9 |
GuardiansCLE45-42
|
9th | 20.6% | 64.3% | + 43.7% |
| 10 |
RangersTEX44-43
|
11th | 45.0% | 60.2% | + 15.3% |
| 11 |
White SoxCHW45-40
|
18th | 1.8% | 42.5% | + 40.7% |
| 12 |
AstrosHOU43-46
|
19th | 42.8% | 34.4% | - 8.4% |
| 13 |
Blue JaysTOR41-46
|
14th | 61.2% | 34.1% | - 27.1% |
| 14 |
MarlinsMIA46-41
|
10th | 8.4% | 27.0% | + 18.7% |
| 15 |
CardinalsSTL44-39
|
15th | 6.5% | 24.0% | + 17.6% |
| 16 |
PiratesPIT43-44
|
12th | 35.0% | 23.9% | - 11.1% |
| 17 |
TigersDET38-49
|
22nd | 60.5% | 23.3% | - 37.2% |
| 18 |
PadresSD43-42
|
13th | 36.1% | 22.0% | - 14.1% |
| 19 |
TwinsMIN42-46
|
27th | 18.9% | 20.0% | + 1.2% |
| 20 |
DiamondbacksARI43-43
|
16th | 30.5% | 19.3% | - 11.2% |
| 21 |
OriolesBAL40-48
|
20th | 47.0% | 17.3% | - 29.7% |
| 22 |
Red SoxBOS37-48
|
17th | 62.2% | 17.1% | - 45.1% |
| 23 |
AthleticsOAK41-46
|
26th | 17.2% | 14.9% | - 2.3% |
| 24 |
NationalsWSH45-43
|
21st | <1% | 9.8% | + 8.8% |
| 25 |
RedsCIN39-46
|
24th | 24.4% | 2.6% | - 21.8% |
| 26 |
MetsNYM36-51
|
23rd | 78.9% | 2.4% | - 76.5% |
| 27 |
GiantsSF36-50
|
25th | 34.0% | 1.6% | - 32.4% |
| 28 |
RoyalsKC35-52
|
28th | 44.5% | 1.1% | - 43.4% |
| 29 |
RockiesCOL34-53
|
30th | <1% | <1% | 0.0% |
| 30 |
AngelsLAA36-51
|
29th | 4.3% | <1% | - 3.3% |
How We Calculate: Our playoff probabilities are calculated by averaging predictions from FanGraphs and Team Rankings. The table above shows the preseason and current playoff probabilities for each team. The change in these two predictions is also shown.
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