Updated Monday Jun. 24

2024 MLB Playoff Odds

MLB team playoff odds tracked from the preseason to current day.

TEAM GURU
RANK
PRESEASON
PROJECTION
PRESEASON
PROJ
CURRENT
PROJECTION
CURRENT
PROJ
CHANGE
1
OriolesBAL49-28
3rd 75.4% >99%
+ 23.7%
2
PhilliesPHI51-26
4th 79.8% >99%
+ 19.2%
3
YankeesNYY52-28
2nd 85.5% >99%
+ 13.6%
4
DodgersLAD48-31
1st 98.9% >99%
+ 0.1%
5
BravesATL43-32
6th 98.0% 98.1%
+ 0.1%
6
GuardiansCLE49-26
5th 17.6% 89.1%
+ 71.5%
7
MarinersSEA45-35
7th 51.5% 79.7%
+ 28.2%
8
BrewersMIL45-33
9th 12.1% 73.6%
+ 61.5%
9
TwinsMIN43-35
10th 76.7% 72.9%
- 3.7%
10
AstrosHOU38-40
11th 87.3% 55.3%
- 32%
11
MetsNYM37-39
13th 37.3% 46.3%
+ 9%
12
PadresSD41-41
12th 30.6% 44.9%
+ 14.3%
13
CardinalsSTL39-37
16th 59.9% 41.7%
- 18.2%
14
Red SoxBOS42-36
8th 12.7% 39.0%
+ 26.3%
15
RangersTEX37-40
14th 77.2% 28.5%
- 48.7%
16
CubsCHC37-41
19th 54.5% 26.0%
- 28.5%
17
DiamondbacksARI38-40
18th 52.5% 25.5%
- 27%
18
RedsCIN36-41
15th 31.6% 24.0%
- 7.6%
19
RoyalsKC42-37
17th 5.3% 20.8%
+ 15.5%
20
GiantsSF36-42
23rd 25.1% 11.3%
- 13.8%
21
RaysTB38-40
20th 40.5% 6.3%
- 34.2%
22
TigersDET36-41
22nd 16.6% 5.1%
- 11.5%
23
NationalsWSH38-39
21st <1% 5.0%
+ 4%
24
PiratesPIT37-40
25th 6.6% 4.3%
- 2.3%
25
Blue JaysTOR35-42
24th 50.4% 4.2%
- 46.2%
26
AthleticsOAK29-51
27th <1% <1%
0.0%
27
RockiesCOL27-51
29th <1% <1%
0.0%
28
White SoxCHW21-58
30th <1% <1%
0.0%
29
AngelsLAA30-46
26th 2.9% <1%
- 1.9%
30
MarlinsMIA27-50
28th 12.4% <1%
- 11.4%

How We Calculate: Our playoff probabilities are calculated by averaging predictions from numberFire and Team Rankings. The table above shows the preseason and current playoff probabilities for each team. The change in these two predictions is also shown.