Updated Monday Oct. 4

2021 MLB Playoff Odds

MLB team playoff odds tracked from the preseason to current day.

TEAM GURU
RANK
PRESEASON
PROJECTION
PRESEASON
PROJ
CURRENT
PROJECTION
CURRENT
PROJ
CHANGE
1
GiantsSF107-55
4th 5.8% >99%
+ 93.2%
2
Red SoxBOS92-70
10th 15.8% >99%
+ 83.2%
3
BrewersMIL95-67
9th 32.4% >99%
+ 66.6%
4
CardinalsSTL90-72
13th 40.8% >99%
+ 58.2%
5
RaysTB100-62
2nd 44.1% >99%
+ 54.9%
6
White SoxCHW93-69
6th 61.4% >99%
+ 37.6%
7
BravesATL88-73
7th 62.6% >99%
+ 36.4%
8
AstrosHOU95-67
3rd 68.4% >99%
+ 30.6%
9
YankeesNYY92-70
8th 86.5% >99%
+ 12.5%
10
DodgersLAD106-56
1st 95.6% >99%
+ 3.4%
11
PiratesPIT61-101
29th <1% <1%
0.0%
12
RockiesCOL74-87
23rd <1% <1%
0.0%
13
OriolesBAL52-110
30th <1% <1%
0.0%
14
TigersDET77-85
20th 1.5% <1%
- 0.5%
15
RangersTEX60-102
27th 2.2% <1%
- 1.2%
16
MarlinsMIA67-95
24th 2.4% <1%
- 1.4%
17
MarinersSEA90-72
17th 4.5% <1%
- 3.5%
18
RoyalsKC74-88
25th 6.1% <1%
- 5.1%
19
DiamondbacksARI52-110
28th 6.7% <1%
- 5.7%
20
PhilliesPHI82-80
15th 18.4% <1%
- 17.4%
21
CubsCHC71-91
26th 24.2% <1%
- 23.2%
22
NationalsWSH65-97
21st 27.7% <1%
- 26.7%
23
IndiansCLE80-82
16th 28.0% <1%
- 27%
24
RedsCIN83-79
14th 30.1% <1%
- 29.1%
25
AngelsLAA77-85
19th 31.0% <1%
- 30%
26
AthleticsOAK86-76
11th 42.3% <1%
- 41.3%
27
Blue JaysTOR91-71
5th 44.2% <1%
- 43.2%
28
TwinsMIN73-89
22nd 63.8% <1%
- 62.8%
29
MetsNYM77-85
18th 69.0% <1%
- 68%
30
PadresSD79-83
12th 82.8% <1%
- 81.8%

How We Calculate: Our playoff probabilities are calculated by averaging predictions from FiveThirtyEight, numberFire and Team Rankings. The table above shows the preseason and current playoff probabilities for each team. The change in these two predictions is also shown.