Updated Thursday Oct. 6

2022 MLB Playoff Odds

MLB team playoff odds tracked from the preseason to current day.

TEAM GURU
RANK
PRESEASON
PROJECTION
PRESEASON
PROJ
CURRENT
PROJECTION
CURRENT
PROJ
CHANGE
1
GuardiansCLE92-70
12th 13.6% >99%
+ 85.4%
2
MarinersSEA90-72
8th 33.4% >99%
+ 65.6%
3
PhilliesPHI87-75
10th 36.4% >99%
+ 62.6%
4
MetsNYM101-61
5th 41.7% >99%
+ 57.3%
5
PadresSD89-73
11th 44.7% >99%
+ 54.3%
6
CardinalsSTL93-69
7th 60.9% >99%
+ 38.1%
7
Blue JaysTOR92-70
6th 62.7% >99%
+ 36.3%
8
RaysTB86-76
9th 72.5% >99%
+ 26.5%
9
YankeesNYY99-63
3rd 82.8% >99%
+ 16.2%
10
AstrosHOU106-56
2nd 83.5% >99%
+ 15.5%
11
BravesATL101-61
4th 86.1% >99%
+ 12.9%
12
DodgersLAD111-51
1st 96.1% >99%
+ 2.9%
13
OriolesBAL83-79
18th <1% <1%
0.0%
14
PiratesPIT62-100
29th 2.1% <1%
- 1.1%
15
AthleticsOAK60-102
28th 2.8% <1%
- 1.8%
16
DiamondbacksARI74-88
20th 3.1% <1%
- 2.1%
17
RockiesCOL68-94
26th 4.1% <1%
- 3.1%
18
NationalsWSH55-107
30th 5.6% <1%
- 4.6%
19
RangersTEX68-94
22nd 5.8% <1%
- 4.8%
20
RoyalsKC65-97
25th 7.2% <1%
- 6.2%
21
TigersDET66-96
24th 8.1% <1%
- 7.1%
22
CubsCHC74-88
21st 10.2% <1%
- 9.2%
23
MarlinsMIA69-93
23rd 12.4% <1%
- 11.4%
24
RedsCIN62-100
27th 15.3% <1%
- 14.3%
25
TwinsMIN78-84
15th 26.8% <1%
- 25.8%
26
AngelsLAA73-89
19th 32.2% <1%
- 31.2%
27
Red SoxBOS78-84
17th 50.8% <1%
- 49.8%
28
GiantsSF81-81
14th 63.7% <1%
- 62.7%
29
White SoxCHW81-81
16th 83.9% <1%
- 82.9%
30
BrewersMIL86-76
13th 84.7% <1%
- 83.7%

How We Calculate: Our playoff probabilities are calculated by averaging predictions from FiveThirtyEight, numberFire and Team Rankings. The table above shows the preseason and current playoff probabilities for each team. The change in these two predictions is also shown.