Updated Monday Sep. 29

2025 MLB Playoff Odds

MLB team playoff odds tracked from the preseason to current day.

TEAM GURU
RANK
PRESEASON
PROJECTION
PRESEASON
PROJ
CURRENT
PROJECTION
CURRENT
PROJ
CHANGE
1
Blue JaysTOR94-68
7th 29.5% >99%
+ 69.5%
2
GuardiansCLE88-74
14th 38.5% >99%
+ 60.5%
3
Red SoxBOS89-73
6th 49.1% >99%
+ 49.9%
4
PadresSD90-72
8th 49.8% >99%
+ 49.2%
5
TigersDET87-75
11th 50.2% >99%
+ 48.8%
6
BrewersMIL97-65
2nd 51.1% >99%
+ 47.9%
7
CubsCHC92-70
5th 52.1% >99%
+ 46.9%
8
MarinersSEA90-72
9th 59.4% >99%
+ 39.6%
9
PhilliesPHI96-66
3rd 60.0% >99%
+ 39%
10
YankeesNYY94-68
1st 62.8% >99%
+ 36.2%
11
DodgersLAD93-69
4th 88.6% >99%
+ 10.4%
12
RedsCIN83-79
15th 20.9% 90.9%
+ 70%
13
MetsNYM83-79
10th 70.9% 9.1%
- 61.8%
14
White SoxCHW60-102
29th <1% <1%
0.0%
15
MarlinsMIA79-83
24th <1% <1%
0.0%
16
RockiesCOL43-119
30th <1% <1%
0.0%
17
NationalsWSH66-96
28th 3.5% <1%
- 2.5%
18
AngelsLAA72-90
27th 5.5% <1%
- 4.5%
19
PiratesPIT71-91
25th 12.5% <1%
- 11.5%
20
CardinalsSTL78-84
21st 17.9% <1%
- 16.9%
21
AthleticsOAK76-86
23rd 20.9% <1%
- 19.9%
22
GiantsSF81-81
20th 31.2% <1%
- 30.2%
23
RaysTB77-85
18th 37.2% <1%
- 36.2%
24
RangersTEX81-81
13th 39.0% <1%
- 38%
25
RoyalsKC82-80
17th 43.6% <1%
- 42.6%
26
OriolesBAL75-87
22nd 48.7% <1%
- 47.7%
27
TwinsMIN70-92
26th 49.6% <1%
- 48.6%
28
DiamondbacksARI80-82
16th 61.4% <1%
- 60.4%
29
AstrosHOU87-75
12th 66.2% <1%
- 65.2%
30
BravesATL76-86
19th 79.1% <1%
- 78.1%

How We Calculate: Our playoff probabilities are calculated by averaging predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference and Team Rankings. The table above shows the preseason and current playoff probabilities for each team. The change in these two predictions is also shown.