Updated Wednesday Sep. 20

2023 MLB Playoff Odds

MLB team playoff odds tracked from the preseason to current day.

TEAM GURU
RANK
PRESEASON
PROJECTION
PRESEASON
PROJ
CURRENT
PROJECTION
CURRENT
PROJ
CHANGE
1
OriolesBAL95-56
9th 11.4% >99%
+ 87.6%
2
TwinsMIN80-72
11th 51.4% >99%
+ 47.6%
3
BrewersMIL85-66
12th 51.5% >99%
+ 47.5%
4
RaysTB93-59
3rd 55.9% >99%
+ 43.1%
5
PhilliesPHI82-69
7th 67.8% >99%
+ 31.2%
6
BravesATL97-54
1st 82.7% >99%
+ 16.3%
7
DodgersLAD93-57
2nd 88.4% >99%
+ 10.6%
8
AstrosHOU84-68
4th 87.0% 89.1%
+ 2.1%
9
Blue JaysTOR84-67
6th 68.4% 78.6%
+ 10.2%
10
MarinersSEA83-68
5th 56.0% 67.3%
+ 11.3%
11
RangersTEX83-68
8th 22.6% 64.9%
+ 42.3%
12
CubsCHC79-72
14th 18.6% 60.6%
+ 42%
13
DiamondbacksARI80-72
19th 9.9% 60.4%
+ 50.5%
14
MarlinsMIA79-73
16th 13.7% 50.6%
+ 36.9%
15
RedsCIN79-74
22nd 3.5% 26.7%
+ 23.2%
16
GiantsSF76-75
18th 28.1% 2.0%
- 26.1%
17
AthleticsOAK46-105
30th <1% <1%
0.0%
18
NationalsWSH67-85
27th <1% <1%
0.0%
19
RockiesCOL56-95
29th 1.4% <1%
- 0.4%
20
RoyalsKC50-102
28th 2.4% <1%
- 1.4%
21
TigersDET70-81
24th 3.7% <1%
- 2.7%
22
PiratesPIT70-81
25th 3.8% <1%
- 2.8%
23
Red SoxBOS75-77
17th 19.2% <1%
- 18.2%
24
AngelsLAA68-83
21st 34.2% <1%
- 33.2%
25
White SoxCHW58-94
26th 41.0% <1%
- 40%
26
GuardiansCLE72-80
20th 61.3% <1%
- 60.3%
27
CardinalsSTL67-84
23rd 66.5% <1%
- 65.5%
28
PadresSD74-78
10th 81.0% <1%
- 80%
29
MetsNYM70-81
15th 82.7% <1%
- 81.7%
30
YankeesNYY76-75
13th 84.6% <1%
- 83.6%

How We Calculate: Our playoff probabilities are calculated by averaging predictions from FiveThirtyEight, numberFire and Team Rankings. The table above shows the preseason and current playoff probabilities for each team. The change in these two predictions is also shown.