Updated Thursday Feb. 12
2026 NBA Playoff Odds
NBA team playoff odds tracked from the preseason to current day.
| TEAM | GURU RANK |
PRESEASON PROJECTIONPRESEASON PROJ |
CURRENT PROJECTIONCURRENT PROJ |
CHANGE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
SpursSA38-16
|
3rd | 51.4% | >99% | + 47.6% |
| 2 |
CelticsBOS35-19
|
6th | 55.9% | >99% | + 43.1% |
| 3 |
PistonsDET40-13
|
2nd | 76.4% | >99% | + 22.6% |
| 4 |
RocketsHOU33-20
|
7th | 90.7% | >99% | + 8.3% |
| 5 |
NuggetsDEN35-20
|
9th | 92.1% | >99% | + 6.9% |
| 6 |
KnicksNY35-20
|
4th | 95.5% | >99% | + 3.5% |
| 7 |
CavaliersCLE34-21
|
5th | 98.6% | >99% | + 0.4% |
| 8 |
ThunderOKC42-13
|
1st | 99.0% | >99% | 0.0% |
| 9 |
TimberwolvesMIN34-22
|
8th | 82.0% | 97.8% | + 15.8% |
| 10 |
RaptorsTOR32-23
|
15th | 41.4% | 89.7% | + 48.3% |
| 11 |
LakersLAL32-21
|
14th | 81.9% | 87.0% | + 5.1% |
| 12 |
76ersPHI30-24
|
16th | 74.9% | 82.2% | + 7.3% |
| 13 |
SunsPHX32-23
|
11th | 8.1% | 81.1% | + 73% |
| 14 |
HeatMIA29-27
|
12th | 39.5% | 77.9% | + 38.4% |
| 15 |
MagicORL28-25
|
17th | 92.1% | 74.2% | - 17.9% |
| 16 |
WarriorsGS29-26
|
10th | 74.8% | 66.1% | - 8.7% |
| 17 |
ClippersLAC26-28
|
13th | 85.0% | 49.8% | - 35.2% |
| 18 |
HornetsCHA26-29
|
18th | 6.2% | 37.0% | + 30.8% |
| 19 |
HawksATL26-30
|
20th | 88.7% | 35.5% | - 53.2% |
| 20 |
Trail BlazersPOR26-29
|
21st | 13.3% | 16.4% | + 3.1% |
| 21 |
GrizzliesMEM20-33
|
19th | 48.7% | 3.0% | - 45.7% |
| 22 |
BucksMIL22-30
|
23rd | 73.0% | 2.7% | - 70.3% |
| 23 |
BullsCHI24-31
|
24th | 16.0% | 1.2% | - 14.8% |
| 24 |
JazzUTAH18-37
|
27th | <1% | <1% | 0.0% |
| 25 |
WizardsWSH14-39
|
30th | 1.1% | <1% | - 0.1% |
| 26 |
NetsBKN15-38
|
28th | 1.2% | <1% | - 0.2% |
| 27 |
PelicansNO15-41
|
25th | 8.3% | <1% | - 7.3% |
| 28 |
KingsSAC12-44
|
29th | 16.5% | <1% | - 15.5% |
| 29 |
PacersIND15-40
|
26th | 39.8% | <1% | - 38.8% |
| 30 |
MavericksDAL19-34
|
22nd | 47.7% | <1% | - 46.7% |
How We Calculate: Our NBA playoff probabilities are calculated by averaging predictions from Team Rankings and ESPN. The table above shows the preseason and current playoff probabilities for each team. The change in these two probabilities is also shown.
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