2026 College Football Win Projections
How many games every team is projected to win.
Updated Nov 11, 2026, 3:33 AM ET
At a glance
Projected wins since the preseason
Projected wins
Final regular-season win totals, averaged over 25,000 simulated seasons.
PreseasonNow
| Rank | Team | Pre-season to current | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Utah9-0 | 8.7 | Preseason 8.7 → now 11.3 | 11.3 | +2.6 | 12 | 1957 | tied for 37 |
| 2 |  UCLA9-0 | 5.5 | Preseason 5.5 → now 10.8 | 10.8 | +5.4 | 12 | 1845 | tied for 13 |
| tied for 3 |  Miami8-1 | 9.7 | Preseason 9.7 → now 10.6 | 10.6 | +0.9 | 11 | 1950 | tied for 51 |
| tied for 3 |  Notre Dame8-1 | 8.9 | Preseason 8.9 → now 10.6 | 10.6 | +1.7 | 11 | 1929 | 66 |
| tied for 5 |  Georgia8-1 | 9.2 | Preseason 9.2 → now 10.5 | 10.5 | +1.3 | 11 | 2064 | 44 |
| tied for 5 |  Indiana8-1 | 10.1 | Preseason 10.1 → now 10.5 | 10.5 | +0.4 | 11 | 2042 | 40 |
| tied for 5 |  Liberty8-1 | 5.8 | Preseason 5.8 → now 10.5 | 10.5 | +4.7 | 11 | 1616 | 135 |
| 8 |  New Mexico8-1 | 7.7 | Preseason 7.7 → now 10.2 | 10.2 | +2.5 | 11 | 1677 | 82 |
| 9 |  Texas Tech8-1 | 9.6 | Preseason 9.6 → now 10.0 | 10.0 | +0.4 | 11 | 1853 | tied for 33 |
| 10 |  Wake Forest8-1 | 6.3 | Preseason 6.3 → now 9.9 | 9.9 | +3.6 | 11 | 1816 | 49 |
| 11 |  Boise State8-1 | 6.5 | Preseason 6.5 → now 9.8 | 9.8 | +3.3 | 10 | 1759 | tied for 111 |
| tied for 12 |  James Madison8-2 | 9.1 | Preseason 9.1 → now 9.6 | 9.6 | +0.5 | 10 | 1736 | 115 |
| tied for 12 |  Alabama7-2 | 8.4 | Preseason 8.4 → now 9.6 | 9.6 | +1.2 | 9 | 1972 | 32 |
| 14 |  Iowa7-2 | 8.4 | Preseason 8.4 → now 9.4 | 9.4 | +1.0 | 9 | 1912 | tied for 51 |
| tied for 15 |  North Dakota State7-2 | 7.1 | Preseason 7.1 → now 9.3 | 9.3 | +2.2 | 9 | 1593 | tied for 137 |
| tied for 15 |  BYU7-2 | 8.4 | Preseason 8.4 → now 9.3 | 9.3 | +0.9 | 9 | 1832 | 56 |
| tied for 17 |  Texas7-2 | 8.2 | Preseason 8.2 → now 9.2 | 9.2 | +1.0 | 9 | 1979 | 28 |
| tied for 17 |  Toledo7-2 | 7.8 | Preseason 7.8 → now 9.2 | 9.2 | +1.4 | 9 | 1589 | 122 |
| tied for 19 |  Louisiana Tech7-2 | 6.0 | Preseason 6.0 → now 9.1 | 9.1 | +3.0 | 9 | 1641 | tied for 97 |
| tied for 19 |  Houston7-2 | 7.4 | Preseason 7.4 → now 9.1 | 9.1 | +1.7 | 9 | 1794 | 62 |
| tied for 19 |  Jacksonville State7-2 | 7.1 | Preseason 7.1 → now 9.1 | 9.1 | +2.0 | 9 | 1567 | 129 |
| tied for 22 |  Air Force7-2 | 5.9 | Preseason 5.9 → now 9.0 | 9.0 | +3.1 | 9 | 1559 | tied for 109 |
| tied for 22 |  Tennessee7-2 | 7.2 | Preseason 7.2 → now 9.0 | 9.0 | +1.8 | 9 | 1905 | 20 |
| tied for 24 |  Memphis7-2 | 6.4 | Preseason 6.4 → now 8.9 | 8.9 | +2.6 | 9 | 1645 | tied for 92 |
| tied for 24 |  North Texas7-2 | 7.5 | Preseason 7.5 → now 8.9 | 8.9 | +1.4 | 9 | 1678 | 83 |
| tied for 24 |  Arizona7-2 | 7.3 | Preseason 7.3 → now 8.9 | 8.9 | +1.5 | 9 | 1812 | tied for 41 |
| tied for 24 |  UTSA7-2 | 6.8 | Preseason 6.8 → now 8.9 | 8.9 | +2.0 | 9 | 1632 | 76 |
| 28 |  Kentucky7-2 | 5.4 | Preseason 5.4 → now 8.7 | 8.7 | +3.3 | 9 | 1795 | tied for 18 |
| 29 |  Western Michigan7-3 | 7.7 | Preseason 7.7 → now 8.6 | 8.6 | +0.9 | 8 | 1589 | tied for 119 |
| tied for 30 |  USC7-2 | 7.4 | Preseason 7.4 → now 8.5 | 8.5 | +1.1 | 9 | 1856 | 24 |
| tied for 30 |  SMU7-2 | 8.7 | Preseason 8.7 → now 8.5 | 8.5 | −0.2 | 9 | 1784 | tied for 26 |
| tied for 32 |  Oregon6-3 | 9.4 | Preseason 9.4 → now 8.4 | 8.4 | −1.0 | 8 | 1920 | tied for 41 |
| tied for 32 |  Ohio7-3 | 7.9 | Preseason 7.9 → now 8.4 | 8.4 | +0.5 | 8 | 1550 | 105 |
| tied for 32 |  Ole Miss6-3 | 8.9 | Preseason 8.9 → now 8.4 | 8.4 | −0.5 | 8 | 1898 | tied for 29 |
| tied for 35 |  Ohio State6-3 | 8.5 | Preseason 8.5 → now 8.3 | 8.3 | −0.2 | 8 | 1911 | 31 |
| tied for 35 |  Duke7-2 | 7.2 | Preseason 7.2 → now 8.3 | 8.3 | +1.1 | 9 | 1809 | 9 |
| tied for 37 |  Wisconsin6-3 | 6.1 | Preseason 6.1 → now 8.1 | 8.1 | +2.0 | 8 | 1743 | 70 |
| tied for 37 |  Buffalo6-3 | 5.7 | Preseason 5.7 → now 8.1 | 8.1 | +2.4 | 8 | 1489 | tied for 137 |
| tied for 37 |  Louisiana6-3 | 6.8 | Preseason 6.8 → now 8.1 | 8.1 | +1.3 | 8 | 1542 | 133 |
| 40 |  Wyoming6-3 | 5.3 | Preseason 5.3 → now 7.8 | 7.8 | +2.5 | 8 | 1508 | tied for 92 |
| tied for 41 |  Louisville6-3 | 7.4 | Preseason 7.4 → now 7.7 | 7.7 | +0.3 | 8 | 1791 | 36 |
| tied for 41 |  South Florida6-3 | 8.0 | Preseason 8.0 → now 7.7 | 7.7 | −0.3 | 8 | 1597 | 73 |
| tied for 43 |  Clemson6-3 | 7.6 | Preseason 7.6 → now 7.6 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 8 | 1731 | tied for 45 |
| tied for 43 |  Pittsburgh6-3 | 7.5 | Preseason 7.5 → now 7.6 | 7.6 | +0.1 | 8 | 1658 | 61 |
| tied for 45 |  South Carolina6-3 | 6.1 | Preseason 6.1 → now 7.5 | 7.5 | +1.5 | 8 | 1836 | 22 |
| tied for 45 |  Oklahoma State6-3 | 3.6 | Preseason 3.6 → now 7.5 | 7.5 | +3.8 | 8 | 1682 | 47 |
| tied for 45 |  Virginia Tech6-3 | 4.5 | Preseason 4.5 → now 7.5 | 7.5 | +3.0 | 8 | 1647 | 50 |
| tied for 45 |  LSU6-3 | 6.7 | Preseason 6.7 → now 7.5 | 7.5 | +0.8 | 8 | 1849 | 12 |
| tied for 49 |  Missouri6-3 | 7.0 | Preseason 7.0 → now 7.4 | 7.4 | +0.4 | 8 | 1827 | 5 |
| tied for 49 |  Florida Atlantic6-3 | 4.5 | Preseason 4.5 → now 7.4 | 7.4 | +2.9 | 8 | 1562 | 71 |
| 51 |  Penn State5-4 | 8.7 | Preseason 8.7 → now 7.3 | 7.3 | −1.4 | 7 | 1757 | 72 |
| tied for 52 |  Northwestern6-3 | 5.6 | Preseason 5.6 → now 7.2 | 7.2 | +1.6 | 8 | 1726 | tied for 18 |
| tied for 52 |  Illinois6-3 | 7.4 | Preseason 7.4 → now 7.2 | 7.2 | −0.2 | 8 | 1767 | 10 |
| tied for 54 |  Fresno State5-4 | 7.0 | Preseason 7.0 → now 7.1 | 7.1 | +0.1 | 7 | 1580 | tied for 89 |
| tied for 54 |  Marshall5-4 | 6.6 | Preseason 6.6 → now 7.1 | 7.1 | +0.5 | 7 | 1503 | 132 |
| tied for 54 |  Baylor6-3 | 5.5 | Preseason 5.5 → now 7.1 | 7.1 | +1.6 | 8 | 1743 | tied for 7 |
| tied for 57 |  Army5-4 | 7.5 | Preseason 7.5 → now 7.0 | 7.0 | −0.5 | 7 | 1557 | 104 |
| tied for 57 |  Miami (OH)6-4 | 6.4 | Preseason 6.4 → now 7.0 | 7.0 | +0.6 | 7 | 1503 | tied for 107 |
| tied for 59 |  East Carolina5-4 | 7.5 | Preseason 7.5 → now 6.8 | 6.8 | −0.7 | 7 | 1560 | tied for 99 |
| tied for 59 |  Georgia Southern5-4 | 5.9 | Preseason 5.9 → now 6.8 | 6.8 | +0.9 | 7 | 1600 | tied for 87 |
| tied for 61 |  Tulsa5-4 | 4.4 | Preseason 4.4 → now 6.7 | 6.7 | +2.3 | 7 | 1536 | 86 |
| tied for 61 |  UNLV5-4 | 7.4 | Preseason 7.4 → now 6.7 | 6.7 | −0.7 | 7 | 1532 | tied for 99 |
| tied for 63 |  North Carolina5-4 | 4.1 | Preseason 4.1 → now 6.6 | 6.6 | +2.5 | 7 | 1658 | 55 |
| tied for 63 |  Auburn5-4 | 5.9 | Preseason 5.9 → now 6.6 | 6.6 | +0.7 | 7 | 1704 | 17 |
| tied for 65 |  Oklahoma5-4 | 7.4 | Preseason 7.4 → now 6.5 | 6.5 | −0.8 | 7 | 1807 | 11 |
| tied for 65 |  UCF5-4 | 5.8 | Preseason 5.8 → now 6.5 | 6.5 | +0.7 | 7 | 1586 | 65 |
| tied for 65 |  Texas State5-4 | 6.4 | Preseason 6.4 → now 6.5 | 6.5 | +0.1 | 6 | 1637 | tied for 94 |
| tied for 68 |  Middle Tennessee5-4 | 4.3 | Preseason 4.3 → now 6.4 | 6.4 | +2.1 | 7 | 1356 | 118 |
| tied for 68 |  Cincinnati5-4 | 5.7 | Preseason 5.7 → now 6.4 | 6.4 | +0.7 | 7 | 1653 | 57 |
| tied for 68 |  App State5-4 | 5.2 | Preseason 5.2 → now 6.4 | 6.4 | +1.2 | 7 | 1410 | 124 |
| tied for 68 |  Florida5-4 | 5.6 | Preseason 5.6 → now 6.4 | 6.4 | +0.8 | 7 | 1688 | 39 |
| 72 |  Arizona State5-4 | 6.8 | Preseason 6.8 → now 6.3 | 6.3 | −0.5 | 7 | 1671 | 43 |
| tied for 73 |  Georgia State5-4 | 3.7 | Preseason 3.7 → now 6.2 | 6.2 | +2.5 | 7 | 1461 | 78 |
| tied for 73 |  Massachusetts5-4 | 2.9 | Preseason 2.9 → now 6.2 | 6.2 | +3.3 | 7 | 1309 | 121 |
| tied for 73 |  UAB5-4 | 4.5 | Preseason 4.5 → now 6.2 | 6.2 | +1.7 | 7 | 1470 | 75 |
| tied for 76 |  West Virginia5-4 | 5.5 | Preseason 5.5 → now 6.1 | 6.1 | +0.6 | 7 | 1609 | tied for 29 |
| tied for 76 |  Minnesota5-4 | 6.9 | Preseason 6.9 → now 6.1 | 6.1 | −0.8 | 7 | 1664 | 23 |
| tied for 76 |  Washington5-4 | 7.4 | Preseason 7.4 → now 6.1 | 6.1 | −1.3 | 7 | 1763 | tied for 13 |
| tied for 76 |  Nebraska5-4 | 5.8 | Preseason 5.8 → now 6.1 | 6.1 | +0.3 | 7 | 1683 | tied for 26 |
| tied for 80 |  Michigan5-4 | 7.0 | Preseason 7.0 → now 5.8 | 5.8 | −1.2 | 7 | 1735 | 1 |
| tied for 80 |  San José State5-5 | 4.8 | Preseason 4.8 → now 5.8 | 5.8 | +0.9 | 7 | 1359 | 74 |
| tied for 80 |  Central Michigan4-5 | 5.6 | Preseason 5.6 → now 5.8 | 5.8 | +0.2 | 5 | 1454 | 134 |
| tied for 80 |  South Alabama4-5 | 5.5 | Preseason 5.5 → now 5.8 | 5.8 | +0.3 | 5 | 1443 | tied for 127 |
| tied for 80 |  Iowa State4-5 | 7.2 | Preseason 7.2 → now 5.8 | 5.8 | −1.4 | 5 | 1641 | 64 |
| tied for 85 |  Delaware4-5 | 5.9 | Preseason 5.9 → now 5.7 | 5.7 | −0.2 | 5 | 1464 | 113 |
| tied for 85 |  Utah State4-5 | 5.5 | Preseason 5.5 → now 5.7 | 5.7 | +0.2 | 5 | 1497 | tied for 111 |
| tied for 85 |  Oregon State5-4 | 3.7 | Preseason 3.7 → now 5.7 | 5.7 | +2.0 | 6 | 1483 | tied for 59 |
| tied for 88 |  Mississippi State4-5 | 4.5 | Preseason 4.5 → now 5.6 | 5.6 | +1.1 | 5 | 1647 | 16 |
| tied for 88 |  Virginia4-5 | 8.1 | Preseason 8.1 → now 5.6 | 5.6 | −2.5 | 5 | 1589 | 67 |
| tied for 88 |  Florida International4-5 | 6.6 | Preseason 6.6 → now 5.6 | 5.6 | −1.0 | 5 | 1416 | 131 |
| tied for 91 |  Florida State4-5 | 5.0 | Preseason 5.0 → now 5.4 | 5.4 | +0.4 | 5 | 1604 | 54 |
| tied for 91 |  NC State4-5 | 7.3 | Preseason 7.3 → now 5.4 | 5.4 | −1.9 | 5 | 1586 | 68 |
| tied for 91 |  Arkansas State4-5 | 6.5 | Preseason 6.5 → now 5.4 | 5.4 | −1.1 | 5 | 1462 | tied for 97 |
| tied for 94 |  UConn4-5 | 7.6 | Preseason 7.6 → now 5.3 | 5.3 | −2.3 | 5 | 1496 | 77 |
| tied for 94 |  Tulane4-5 | 7.7 | Preseason 7.7 → now 5.3 | 5.3 | −2.4 | 5 | 1495 | 79 |
| 96 |  TCU4-5 | 7.8 | Preseason 7.8 → now 5.2 | 5.2 | −2.6 | 5 | 1681 | 21 |
| 97 |  Stanford4-5 | 4.5 | Preseason 4.5 → now 5.1 | 5.1 | +0.6 | 5 | 1548 | 58 |
| tied for 98 |  Troy4-5 | 6.5 | Preseason 6.5 → now 5.0 | 5.0 | −1.5 | 5 | 1415 | 91 |
| tied for 98 |  Vanderbilt4-5 | 8.1 | Preseason 8.1 → now 5.0 | 5.0 | −3.1 | 5 | 1697 | 6 |
| 100 |  Texas A&M4-5 | 8.0 | Preseason 8.0 → now 4.9 | 4.9 | −3.1 | 5 | 1730 | 3 |
| tied for 101 |  Eastern Michigan4-6 | 5.1 | Preseason 5.1 → now 4.8 | 4.8 | −0.3 | 5 | 1330 | tied for 107 |
| tied for 101 |  Kansas State4-5 | 7.5 | Preseason 7.5 → now 4.8 | 4.8 | −2.7 | 5 | 1556 | tied for 33 |
| tied for 101 |  Kennesaw State3-6 | 6.9 | Preseason 6.9 → now 4.8 | 4.8 | −2.1 | 4 | 1420 | 136 |
| tied for 101 |  Boston College4-5 | 4.6 | Preseason 4.6 → now 4.8 | 4.8 | +0.2 | 5 | 1542 | 25 |
| tied for 105 |  Syracuse4-5 | 4.0 | Preseason 4.0 → now 4.7 | 4.7 | +0.7 | 5 | 1500 | 53 |
| tied for 105 |  San Diego State4-5 | 6.0 | Preseason 6.0 → now 4.7 | 4.7 | −1.3 | 5 | 1454 | tied for 59 |
| 107 |  Hawai'i3-6 | 7.2 | Preseason 7.2 → now 4.6 | 4.6 | −2.6 | 4 | 1408 | 114 |
| 108 |  Navy3-6 | 8.4 | Preseason 8.4 → now 4.5 | 4.5 | −3.9 | 4 | 1506 | 85 |
| 109 |  Nevada3-6 | 5.2 | Preseason 5.2 → now 4.4 | 4.4 | −0.8 | 4 | 1360 | 126 |
| tied for 110 |  Colorado State3-6 | 4.3 | Preseason 4.3 → now 4.1 | 4.1 | −0.2 | 4 | 1326 | tied for 94 |
| tied for 110 |  California3-6 | 5.7 | Preseason 5.7 → now 4.1 | 4.1 | −1.6 | 4 | 1473 | 63 |
| tied for 110 |  Missouri State3-6 | 5.5 | Preseason 5.5 → now 4.1 | 4.1 | −1.4 | 4 | 1355 | 84 |
| tied for 110 |  Michigan State3-6 | 4.8 | Preseason 4.8 → now 4.1 | 4.1 | −0.7 | 4 | 1591 | tied for 37 |
| tied for 110 |  New Mexico State3-6 | 4.3 | Preseason 4.3 → now 4.1 | 4.1 | −0.2 | 4 | 1307 | 130 |
| tied for 115 |  Old Dominion3-7 | 8.2 | Preseason 8.2 → now 4.0 | 4.0 | −4.2 | 4 | 1452 | 116 |
| tied for 115 |  Western Kentucky3-6 | 6.4 | Preseason 6.4 → now 4.0 | 4.0 | −2.4 | 4 | 1361 | 80 |
| tied for 117 |  Southern Miss3-6 | 4.5 | Preseason 4.5 → now 3.9 | 3.9 | −0.6 | 4 | 1377 | tied for 87 |
| tied for 117 |  Colorado3-6 | 4.7 | Preseason 4.7 → now 3.9 | 3.9 | −0.8 | 4 | 1489 | 48 |
| tied for 119 |  Ball State3-6 | 4.2 | Preseason 4.2 → now 3.8 | 3.8 | −0.4 | 4 | 1294 | 96 |
| tied for 119 |  Coastal Carolina3-6 | 5.8 | Preseason 5.8 → now 3.8 | 3.8 | −2.0 | 4 | 1384 | 69 |
| tied for 119 |  Kansas3-6 | 6.0 | Preseason 6.0 → now 3.8 | 3.8 | −2.2 | 4 | 1535 | 35 |
| tied for 119 |  Bowling Green3-7 | 4.5 | Preseason 4.5 → now 3.8 | 3.8 | −0.7 | 4 | 1332 | 103 |
| tied for 123 |  Maryland3-6 | 5.2 | Preseason 5.2 → now 3.6 | 3.6 | −1.5 | 4 | 1514 | tied for 13 |
| tied for 123 |  Arkansas3-6 | 4.7 | Preseason 4.7 → now 3.6 | 3.6 | −1.1 | 4 | 1606 | 2 |
| tied for 123 |  Kent State3-7 | 4.0 | Preseason 4.0 → now 3.6 | 3.6 | −0.4 | 4 | 1274 | tied for 119 |
| 126 |  Purdue3-6 | 3.9 | Preseason 3.9 → now 3.4 | 3.4 | −0.5 | 4 | 1531 | 4 |
| 127 |  Temple2-7 | 4.9 | Preseason 4.9 → now 3.2 | 3.2 | −1.7 | 3 | 1331 | tied for 99 |
| 128 |  Rutgers2-7 | 6.3 | Preseason 6.3 → now 3 | 3 | −3.3 | 3 | 1514 | tied for 45 |
| 129 |  UL Monroe2-7 | 4.3 | Preseason 4.3 → now 2.8 | 2.8 | −1.5 | 3 | 1269 | 102 |
| 130 |  Washington State1-8 | 6.6 | Preseason 6.6 → now 2.6 | 2.6 | −4.0 | 1 | 1404 | tied for 89 |
| 131 |  Sacramento State2-8 | 7.3 | Preseason 7.3 → now 2.4 | 2.4 | −4.9 | 2 | 1277 | 123 |
| 132 |  Georgia Tech2-7 | 6.5 | Preseason 6.5 → now 2.3 | 2.3 | −4.2 | 3 | 1478 | tied for 7 |
| 133 |  Rice1-8 | 4.2 | Preseason 4.2 → now 1.9 | 1.9 | −2.3 | 1 | 1295 | 106 |
| 134 |  Sam Houston1-8 | 4.0 | Preseason 4.0 → now 1.8 | 1.8 | −2.2 | 1 | 1194 | tied for 127 |
| tied for 135 |  UTEP1-8 | 3.9 | Preseason 3.9 → now 1.6 | 1.6 | −2.2 | 1 | 1169 | tied for 109 |
| tied for 135 |  Charlotte1-8 | 3.1 | Preseason 3.1 → now 1.6 | 1.6 | −1.5 | 1 | 1247 | 81 |
| 137 |  Akron1-9 | 4.7 | Preseason 4.7 → now 1.5 | 1.5 | −3.2 | 1 | 1218 | 125 |
| 138 |  Northern Illinois0-9 | 4.5 | Preseason 4.5 → now 1.0 | 1.0 | −3.5 | 0 | 1166 | 117 |
- Now
- Current
- Chg
- Change
- Pace
- On pace for (wins, at the current win rate)
- Rem SoS
- Remaining SoS Rank (1 = hardest)