2026 College Football Win Projections

How many games every team is projected to win.

Updated Oct 22, 2026, 4:33 AM ET

At a glance

Projected wins since the preseason

Biggest gain: +4.6wins; UCLA; 5.5 → 10.1
Biggest drop: −4.7wins; Sacramento State; 7.3 → 2.6

Projected wins

Final regular-season win totals, averaged over 25,000 simulated seasons.

PreseasonNow

Rank	Team		Pre-season to current
1	James Madison7-0	9.1	Preseason 9.1 → now 11.3	11.3	+2.2	12	1806	114
2	Miami6-0	9.7	Preseason 9.7 → now 10.9	10.9	+1.2	12	1971	43
tied for 3	BYU6-0	8.4	Preseason 8.4 → now 10.6	10.6	+2.2	12	1902	56
tied for 3	Texas Tech6-0	9.6	Preseason 9.6 → now 10.6	10.6	+1.0	12	1883	45
tied for 5	Utah6-0	8.7	Preseason 8.7 → now 10.1	10.1	+1.4	12	1895	tied for 29
tied for 5	Indiana6-1	10.1	Preseason 10.1 → now 10.1	10.1	0.0	10	2019	31
tied for 5	UCLA6-0	5.5	Preseason 5.5 → now 10.1	10.1	+4.6	12	1796	63
8	Ohio State6-1	8.5	Preseason 8.5 → now 9.9	9.9	+1.4	10	2036	3
tied for 9	Notre Dame6-1	8.9	Preseason 8.9 → now 9.8	9.8	+0.9	10	1883	65
tied for 9	Georgia6-1	9.2	Preseason 9.2 → now 9.8	9.8	+0.6	10	1998	18
11	North Dakota State6-1	7.1	Preseason 7.1 → now 9.7	9.7	+2.6	10	1608	129
12	Wake Forest6-1	6.3	Preseason 6.3 → now 9.5	9.5	+3.2	10	1795	42
tied for 13	Ole Miss5-1	8.9	Preseason 8.9 → now 9.4	9.4	+0.5	10	1972	tied for 6
tied for 13	Iowa5-1	8.4	Preseason 8.4 → now 9.4	9.4	+1.0	10	1883	39
tied for 15	Tennessee6-1	7.2	Preseason 7.2 → now 9.3	9.3	+2.1	10	1901	15
tied for 15	Houston6-1	7.4	Preseason 7.4 → now 9.3	9.3	+1.9	10	1796	tied for 61
tied for 17	UTSA6-1	6.8	Preseason 6.8 → now 9.2	9.2	+2.3	10	1663	77
tied for 17	Liberty5-1	5.8	Preseason 5.8 → now 9.2	9.2	+3.4	10	1540	133
tied for 19	New Mexico5-1	7.7	Preseason 7.7 → now 9.1	9.1	+1.4	10	1626	98
tied for 19	SMU5-1	8.7	Preseason 8.7 → now 9.1	9.1	+0.4	10	1785	66
tied for 19	Boise State5-1	6.5	Preseason 6.5 → now 9.1	9.1	+2.6	9	1725	104
22	Ohio5-2	7.9	Preseason 7.9 → now 8.8	8.8	+0.9	9	1592	127
tied for 23	Kentucky6-1	5.4	Preseason 5.4 → now 8.7	8.7	+3.3	10	1808	14
tied for 23	Western Michigan5-2	7.7	Preseason 7.7 → now 8.7	8.7	+1.0	9	1592	124
tied for 23	Alabama5-2	8.4	Preseason 8.4 → now 8.7	8.7	+0.3	9	1907	16
tied for 26	Arizona5-1	7.3	Preseason 7.3 → now 8.6	8.6	+1.2	10	1812	tied for 26
tied for 26	Louisiana5-2	6.8	Preseason 6.8 → now 8.6	8.6	+1.8	9	1574	tied for 131
tied for 28	USC6-1	7.4	Preseason 7.4 → now 8.5	8.5	+1.1	10	1850	23
tied for 28	Air Force5-1	5.9	Preseason 5.9 → now 8.5	8.5	+2.6	10	1544	97
30	Jacksonville State5-2	7.1	Preseason 7.1 → now 8.4	8.4	+1.3	9	1528	136
31	Toledo5-2	7.8	Preseason 7.8 → now 8.3	8.3	+0.6	9	1552	112
32	Oregon4-2	9.4	Preseason 9.4 → now 8	8	−1.4	8	1896	tied for 29
tied for 33	Army4-2	7.5	Preseason 7.5 → now 7.9	7.9	+0.4	8	1616	94
tied for 33	South Florida5-2	8.0	Preseason 8.0 → now 7.9	7.9	−0.1	9	1598	tied for 74
tied for 33	Northwestern5-1	5.6	Preseason 5.6 → now 7.9	7.9	+2.3	10	1765	21
tied for 33	Memphis5-2	6.4	Preseason 6.4 → now 7.9	7.9	+1.5	9	1578	78
tied for 37	North Texas4-2	7.5	Preseason 7.5 → now 7.7	7.7	+0.2	8	1627	84
tied for 37	Clemson4-2	7.6	Preseason 7.6 → now 7.7	7.7	+0.1	8	1713	64
tied for 37	LSU5-2	6.7	Preseason 6.7 → now 7.7	7.7	+1.0	9	1860	tied for 4
tied for 37	Missouri5-2	7.0	Preseason 7.0 → now 7.7	7.7	+0.7	9	1836	tied for 4
tied for 37	Texas4-2	8.2	Preseason 8.2 → now 7.7	7.7	−0.5	8	1894	12
42	Louisiana Tech4-2	6.0	Preseason 6.0 → now 7.6	7.6	+1.5	8	1538	110
tied for 43	UNLV4-3	7.4	Preseason 7.4 → now 7.5	7.5	+0.1	7	1574	tied for 121
tied for 43	Fresno State4-3	7.0	Preseason 7.0 → now 7.5	7.5	+0.5	7	1593	102
45	Pittsburgh5-2	7.5	Preseason 7.5 → now 7.3	7.3	−0.2	9	1643	tied for 50
tied for 46	Florida5-2	5.6	Preseason 5.6 → now 7.2	7.2	+1.6	9	1747	17
tied for 46	Nebraska5-2	5.8	Preseason 5.8 → now 7.2	7.2	+1.4	9	1746	24
tied for 46	Wisconsin4-2	6.1	Preseason 6.1 → now 7.2	7.2	+1.1	8	1699	55
tied for 49	Tulane3-3	7.7	Preseason 7.7 → now 7.1	7.1	−0.6	6	1639	92
tied for 49	Louisville4-3	7.4	Preseason 7.4 → now 7.1	7.1	−0.3	7	1752	59
tied for 49	Kansas State4-2	7.5	Preseason 7.5 → now 7.1	7.1	−0.4	8	1689	52
tied for 49	Buffalo4-3	5.7	Preseason 5.7 → now 7.1	7.1	+1.4	7	1448	137
53	North Carolina4-2	4.1	Preseason 4.1 → now 7	7	+2.9	8	1641	tied for 61
tied for 54	Michigan4-2	7.0	Preseason 7.0 → now 7.0	7.0	0.0	8	1807	25
tied for 54	Duke4-2	7.2	Preseason 7.2 → now 7.0	7.0	−0.2	8	1724	40
tied for 54	Virginia Tech5-2	4.5	Preseason 4.5 → now 7.0	7.0	+2.5	9	1639	37
tied for 54	Auburn4-2	5.9	Preseason 5.9 → now 7.0	7.0	+1.1	8	1745	8
tied for 58	Mississippi State4-2	4.5	Preseason 4.5 → now 6.9	6.9	+2.4	8	1710	9
tied for 58	Georgia State4-2	3.7	Preseason 3.7 → now 6.9	6.9	+3.2	8	1478	100
tied for 58	Oregon State5-2	3.7	Preseason 3.7 → now 6.9	6.9	+3.2	8	1559	68
tied for 58	Marshall4-3	6.6	Preseason 6.6 → now 6.9	6.9	+0.3	7	1504	tied for 115
62	South Alabama4-3	5.5	Preseason 5.5 → now 6.8	6.8	+1.3	7	1492	105
tied for 63	App State4-2	5.2	Preseason 5.2 → now 6.6	6.6	+1.4	8	1460	90
tied for 63	Florida Atlantic4-2	4.5	Preseason 4.5 → now 6.6	6.6	+2.1	8	1483	76
tied for 65	Oklahoma State4-2	3.6	Preseason 3.6 → now 6.5	6.5	+2.9	8	1598	58
tied for 65	Middle Tennessee4-3	4.3	Preseason 4.3 → now 6.5	6.5	+2.2	7	1375	128
tied for 65	Baylor4-2	5.5	Preseason 5.5 → now 6.5	6.5	+1.0	8	1674	35
tied for 65	East Carolina3-3	7.5	Preseason 7.5 → now 6.5	6.5	−1.0	6	1548	93
tied for 69	San José State4-3	4.8	Preseason 4.8 → now 6.4	6.4	+1.5	7	1395	91
tied for 69	UConn3-3	7.6	Preseason 7.6 → now 6.4	6.4	−1.2	6	1562	80
tied for 69	Virginia4-3	8.1	Preseason 8.1 → now 6.4	6.4	−1.7	7	1626	49
tied for 72	NC State3-3	7.3	Preseason 7.3 → now 6.3	6.3	−1.0	6	1627	69
tied for 72	Miami (OH)4-3	6.4	Preseason 6.4 → now 6.3	6.3	−0.1	7	1458	101
tied for 72	Washington4-3	7.4	Preseason 7.4 → now 6.3	6.3	−1.1	7	1756	28
tied for 75	UAB4-3	4.5	Preseason 4.5 → now 6.2	6.2	+1.7	7	1480	82
tied for 75	Penn State3-4	8.7	Preseason 8.7 → now 6.2	6.2	−2.5	5	1708	67
tied for 77	Iowa State3-3	7.2	Preseason 7.2 → now 6.1	6.1	−1.1	6	1677	tied for 46
tied for 77	Tulsa4-3	4.4	Preseason 4.4 → now 6.1	6.1	+1.7	7	1449	72
tied for 79	TCU3-3	7.8	Preseason 7.8 → now 6.0	6.0	−1.8	6	1710	34
tied for 79	Minnesota4-2	6.9	Preseason 6.9 → now 6.0	6.0	−0.9	8	1671	10
tied for 79	Wyoming4-3	5.3	Preseason 5.3 → now 6.0	6.0	+0.7	7	1412	85
tied for 79	Oklahoma3-3	7.4	Preseason 7.4 → now 6.0	6.0	−1.4	6	1790	13
tied for 79	Massachusetts4-3	2.9	Preseason 2.9 → now 6.0	6.0	+3.1	7	1312	120
tied for 84	Cincinnati4-2	5.7	Preseason 5.7 → now 5.9	5.9	+0.2	8	1629	19
tied for 84	Texas A&M4-3	8.0	Preseason 8.0 → now 5.9	5.9	−2.1	7	1766	1
tied for 84	Arkansas State3-4	6.5	Preseason 6.5 → now 5.9	5.9	−0.6	5	1471	118
tied for 84	Georgia Southern3-4	5.9	Preseason 5.9 → now 5.9	5.9	0.0	5	1529	103
88	Texas State3-3	6.4	Preseason 6.4 → now 5.8	5.8	−0.6	6	1587	tied for 74
tied for 89	Arizona State3-3	6.8	Preseason 6.8 → now 5.7	5.7	−1.1	6	1631	tied for 46
tied for 89	Troy3-3	6.5	Preseason 6.5 → now 5.7	5.7	−0.8	6	1464	tied for 88
tied for 89	Eastern Michigan4-4	5.1	Preseason 5.1 → now 5.7	5.7	+0.6	6	1398	96
tied for 92	Florida International3-4	6.6	Preseason 6.6 → now 5.6	5.6	−1.0	5	1423	130
tied for 92	Central Michigan3-4	5.6	Preseason 5.6 → now 5.6	5.6	0.0	5	1404	135
tied for 92	Western Kentucky3-4	6.4	Preseason 6.4 → now 5.6	5.6	−0.8	5	1449	113
95	UCF3-3	5.8	Preseason 5.8 → now 5.5	5.5	−0.3	6	1569	57
tied for 96	Delaware3-4	5.9	Preseason 5.9 → now 5.4	5.4	−0.5	5	1430	tied for 121
tied for 96	South Carolina3-3	6.1	Preseason 6.1 → now 5.4	5.4	−0.7	6	1725	11
tied for 96	West Virginia4-3	5.5	Preseason 5.5 → now 5.4	5.4	−0.1	7	1577	22
tied for 99	Illinois3-3	7.4	Preseason 7.4 → now 5.3	5.3	−2.1	6	1673	tied for 26
tied for 99	Florida State3-4	5.0	Preseason 5.0 → now 5.3	5.3	+0.3	5	1602	53
101	Navy2-4	8.4	Preseason 8.4 → now 5.1	5.1	−3.3	4	1538	70
tied for 102	San Diego State3-4	6.0	Preseason 6.0 → now 5.0	5.0	−1.0	5	1472	99
tied for 102	New Mexico State3-4	4.3	Preseason 4.3 → now 5.0	5.0	+0.7	5	1358	tied for 115
104	Boston College3-3	4.6	Preseason 4.6 → now 4.9	4.9	+0.3	6	1542	44
105	Utah State2-4	5.5	Preseason 5.5 → now 4.8	4.8	−0.7	4	1436	87
tied for 106	Stanford3-4	4.5	Preseason 4.5 → now 4.7	4.7	+0.2	5	1542	tied for 50
tied for 106	Vanderbilt3-4	8.1	Preseason 8.1 → now 4.7	4.7	−3.4	5	1699	2
tied for 108	Purdue3-4	3.9	Preseason 3.9 → now 4.6	4.6	+0.7	5	1592	33
tied for 108	California3-4	5.7	Preseason 5.7 → now 4.6	4.6	−1.1	5	1508	60
tied for 108	Arkansas3-4	4.7	Preseason 4.7 → now 4.6	4.6	−0.1	5	1649	tied for 6
111	Old Dominion2-5	8.2	Preseason 8.2 → now 4.4	4.4	−3.8	3	1468	108
112	Kent State2-5	4.0	Preseason 4.0 → now 4.3	4.3	+0.3	3	1324	138
113	Missouri State2-5	5.5	Preseason 5.5 → now 4.2	4.2	−1.3	3	1348	119
tied for 114	Nevada2-4	5.2	Preseason 5.2 → now 4.1	4.1	−1.1	4	1347	tied for 88
tied for 114	Kansas2-4	6.0	Preseason 6.0 → now 4.1	4.1	−1.9	4	1548	48
116	Georgia Tech2-4	6.5	Preseason 6.5 → now 4	4	−2.5	4	1587	32
tied for 117	Rutgers2-4	6.3	Preseason 6.3 → now 3.9	3.9	−2.4	4	1559	36
tied for 117	Colorado2-4	4.7	Preseason 4.7 → now 3.9	3.9	−0.8	4	1502	54
tied for 119	Colorado State2-4	4.3	Preseason 4.3 → now 3.8	3.8	−0.5	4	1321	81
tied for 119	Kennesaw State1-5	6.9	Preseason 6.9 → now 3.8	3.8	−3.1	2	1383	125
tied for 119	Bowling Green2-5	4.5	Preseason 4.5 → now 3.8	3.8	−0.7	3	1338	109
tied for 119	Ball State2-5	4.2	Preseason 4.2 → now 3.8	3.8	−0.4	3	1269	123
tied for 123	Temple2-5	4.9	Preseason 4.9 → now 3.6	3.6	−1.2	3	1356	95
tied for 123	Hawai'i1-6	7.2	Preseason 7.2 → now 3.6	3.6	−3.6	2	1353	134
125	Coastal Carolina2-5	5.8	Preseason 5.8 → now 3.5	3.5	−2.3	3	1384	73
126	Washington State1-6	6.6	Preseason 6.6 → now 3.4	3.4	−3.2	2	1446	79
tied for 127	Maryland2-5	5.2	Preseason 5.2 → now 3.3	3.3	−1.9	3	1483	38
tied for 127	Syracuse2-4	4.0	Preseason 4.0 → now 3.3	3.3	−0.7	4	1459	41
129	Michigan State2-5	4.8	Preseason 4.8 → now 3.1	3.1	−1.7	3	1531	20
tied for 130	Sacramento State1-6	7.3	Preseason 7.3 → now 2.6	2.6	−4.7	2	1262	tied for 131
tied for 130	Southern Miss1-5	4.5	Preseason 4.5 → now 2.6	2.6	−1.9	2	1315	86
132	Akron1-6	4.7	Preseason 4.7 → now 2.4	2.4	−2.3	2	1269	106
133	Sam Houston1-6	4.0	Preseason 4.0 → now 2.3	2.3	−1.7	2	1223	126
134	UTEP1-6	3.9	Preseason 3.9 → now 2.1	2.1	−1.7	2	1185	111
tied for 135	Rice1-6	4.2	Preseason 4.2 → now 2.0	2.0	−2.2	2	1307	71
tied for 135	Charlotte1-6	3.1	Preseason 3.1 → now 2.0	2.0	−1.1	2	1270	83
137	Northern Illinois0-6	4.5	Preseason 4.5 → now 1.9	1.9	−2.6	0	1227	117
138	UL Monroe0-6	4.3	Preseason 4.3 → now 1.3	1.3	−3.0	0	1214	107