2026 NFL Win Projections
How many games every team is projected to win.
Updated Oct 20, 2026, 4:30 AM ET
At a glance
Projected wins
Final regular-season win totals, averaged over 25,000 simulated seasons.
PreseasonNow
| Rank | Team | Pre-season to current | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  49ers6-0 | 9.6 | Preseason 9.6 → now 13.7 | 13.7 | +4.1 | 17 | 1660 | tied for 20 |
| 2 |  Vikings5-0 | 9.7 | Preseason 9.7 → now 12.7 | 12.7 | +3.0 | 17 | 1629 | 7 |
| 3 |  Bills5-1 | 10.4 | Preseason 10.4 → now 12.3 | 12.3 | +2.0 | 14 | 1653 | 18 |
| 4 |  Chiefs5-0 | 8.1 | Preseason 8.1 → now 11.6 | 11.6 | +3.5 | 17 | 1580 | 4 |
| tied for 5 |  Jaguars4-2 | 10.0 | Preseason 10.0 → now 11.3 | 11.3 | +1.3 | 11 | 1599 | 32 |
| tied for 5 |  Broncos4-2 | 10.8 | Preseason 10.8 → now 11.3 | 11.3 | +0.5 | 11 | 1614 | 31 |
| 7 |  Patriots4-2 | 10.1 | Preseason 10.1 → now 10.8 | 10.8 | +0.7 | 11 | 1612 | 15 |
| 8 |  Seahawks3-3 | 12.2 | Preseason 12.2 → now 10.6 | 10.6 | −1.6 | 9 | 1656 | tied for 12 |
| 9 |  Ravens4-2 | 9.8 | Preseason 9.8 → now 10.1 | 10.1 | +0.3 | 11 | 1556 | tied for 10 |
| tied for 10 |  Steelers4-2 | 8.7 | Preseason 8.7 → now 9.9 | 9.9 | +1.2 | 11 | 1540 | tied for 10 |
| tied for 10 |  Lions3-2 | 10.2 | Preseason 10.2 → now 9.9 | 9.9 | −0.3 | 10 | 1552 | 16 |
| 12 |  Bengals3-2 | 8.4 | Preseason 8.4 → now 9.8 | 9.8 | +1.4 | 10 | 1520 | 27 |
| 13 |  Bears4-2 | 8.7 | Preseason 8.7 → now 9.7 | 9.7 | +1.0 | 11 | 1555 | 1 |
| 14 |  Packers4-2 | 8.8 | Preseason 8.8 → now 9.5 | 9.5 | +0.7 | 11 | 1534 | 2 |
| 15 |  Browns4-2 | 7.3 | Preseason 7.3 → now 9.2 | 9.2 | +1.9 | 11 | 1449 | 30 |
| 16 |  Panthers3-2 | 6.7 | Preseason 6.7 → now 8.8 | 8.8 | +2.1 | 10 | 1490 | 8 |
| 17 |  Texans2-4 | 11.0 | Preseason 11.0 → now 8.5 | 8.5 | −2.5 | 6 | 1547 | 29 |
| 18 |  Rams2-4 | 10.6 | Preseason 10.6 → now 8.2 | 8.2 | −2.4 | 6 | 1556 | 19 |
| 19 |  Eagles2-4 | 10.0 | Preseason 10.0 → now 7.7 | 7.7 | −2.3 | 6 | 1485 | 26 |
| 20 |  Giants3-2-1 | 6.9 | Preseason 6.9 → now 7.2 | 7.2 | +0.3 | 10 | 1425 | tied for 5 |
| 21 |  Raiders3-3 | 5 | Preseason 5 → now 7.1 | 7.1 | +2.1 | 9 | 1410 | 9 |
| 22 |  Falcons2-4 | 8.1 | Preseason 8.1 → now 6.8 | 6.8 | −1.3 | 6 | 1448 | 17 |
| tied for 23 |  Saints2-4 | 7.8 | Preseason 7.8 → now 6.7 | 6.7 | −1.1 | 6 | 1416 | 28 |
| tied for 23 |  Cowboys2-4 | 7.5 | Preseason 7.5 → now 6.7 | 6.7 | −0.8 | 6 | 1425 | 22 |
| 25 |  Colts2-4 | 7.7 | Preseason 7.7 → now 6.6 | 6.6 | −1.1 | 6 | 1422 | 23 |
| 26 |  Cardinals2-4 | 5.7 | Preseason 5.7 → now 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.4 | 6 | 1384 | 14 |
| tied for 27 |  Jets2-4 | 5.3 | Preseason 5.3 → now 5.6 | 5.6 | +0.3 | 6 | 1370 | tied for 12 |
| tied for 27 |  Buccaneers1-5 | 8.3 | Preseason 8.3 → now 5.6 | 5.6 | −2.7 | 3 | 1422 | 25 |
| 29 |  Commanders1-4-1 | 7.6 | Preseason 7.6 → now 5.5 | 5.5 | −2.1 | 4 | 1406 | 24 |
| 30 |  Titans1-5 | 5.5 | Preseason 5.5 → now 4.0 | 4.0 | −1.5 | 3 | 1313 | tied for 20 |
| 31 |  Chargers0-6 | 8.6 | Preseason 8.6 → now 3.9 | 3.9 | −4.7 | 0 | 1406 | tied for 5 |
| 32 |  Dolphins0-5 | 7.2 | Preseason 7.2 → now 3.7 | 3.7 | −3.5 | 0 | 1366 | 3 |
- Now
- Current
- Chg
- Change
- Pace
- On pace for (wins, at the current win rate)
- Rem SoS
- Remaining SoS Rank (1 = hardest)