2026 NFL Win Projections
How many games every team is projected to win.
Updated Nov 10, 2026, 3:30 AM ET
At a glance
Projected wins
Final regular-season win totals, averaged over 25,000 simulated seasons.
PreseasonNow
| Rank | Team | Pre-season to current | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bills7-1 | 10.4 | Preseason 10.4 → now 13.6 | 13.6 | +3.2 | 15 | 1697 | 25 |
| 2 |  49ers7-1 | 9.6 | Preseason 9.6 → now 13.0 | 13.0 | +3.4 | 15 | 1634 | tied for 18 |
| 3 |  Broncos7-2 | 10.8 | Preseason 10.8 → now 12.7 | 12.7 | +1.9 | 13 | 1647 | 32 |
| 4 |  Jaguars6-2 | 10.0 | Preseason 10.0 → now 12.3 | 12.3 | +2.3 | 13 | 1638 | 31 |
| 5 |  Bengals6-2 | 8.4 | Preseason 8.4 → now 12.1 | 12.1 | +3.7 | 13 | 1589 | 30 |
| 6 |  Bears7-2 | 8.7 | Preseason 8.7 → now 11.7 | 11.7 | +3.0 | 13 | 1625 | 1 |
| 7 |  Vikings6-2 | 9.7 | Preseason 9.7 → now 11.4 | 11.4 | +1.7 | 13 | 1589 | 13 |
| tied for 8 |  Lions6-2 | 10.2 | Preseason 10.2 → now 11.3 | 11.3 | +1.2 | 13 | 1593 | 6 |
| tied for 8 |  Steelers6-2 | 8.7 | Preseason 8.7 → now 11.3 | 11.3 | +2.6 | 13 | 1572 | 17 |
| 10 |  Chiefs6-2 | 8.1 | Preseason 8.1 → now 10.9 | 10.9 | +2.8 | 13 | 1562 | 12 |
| 11 |  Packers6-3 | 8.8 | Preseason 8.8 → now 10.4 | 10.4 | +1.6 | 11 | 1577 | 3 |
| 12 |  Seahawks5-4 | 12.2 | Preseason 12.2 → now 10.3 | 10.3 | −1.9 | 9 | 1639 | 15 |
| 13 |  Rams5-4 | 10.6 | Preseason 10.6 → now 9.6 | 9.6 | −1.0 | 9 | 1600 | 2 |
| 14 |  Patriots5-4 | 10.1 | Preseason 10.1 → now 9.4 | 9.4 | −0.7 | 9 | 1561 | 11 |
| 15 |  Giants5-2-1 | 6.9 | Preseason 6.9 → now 9.2 | 9.2 | +2.3 | 12 | 1478 | tied for 8 |
| 16 |  Browns5-4 | 7.3 | Preseason 7.3 → now 8.6 | 8.6 | +1.3 | 9 | 1435 | 24 |
| 17 |  Texans3-5 | 11.0 | Preseason 11.0 → now 8.3 | 8.3 | −2.7 | 6 | 1541 | 28 |
| 18 |  Ravens4-5 | 9.8 | Preseason 9.8 → now 7.8 | 7.8 | −2.0 | 8 | 1475 | 23 |
| 19 |  Cowboys4-5 | 7.5 | Preseason 7.5 → now 7.6 | 7.6 | +0.1 | 8 | 1460 | 7 |
| 20 |  Buccaneers3-6 | 8.3 | Preseason 8.3 → now 7.3 | 7.3 | −1.0 | 6 | 1488 | 26 |
| 21 |  Raiders4-5 | 5 | Preseason 5 → now 7.0 | 7.0 | +2.1 | 8 | 1399 | 16 |
| tied for 22 |  Panthers3-5 | 6.7 | Preseason 6.7 → now 6.5 | 6.5 | −0.2 | 6 | 1420 | tied for 8 |
| tied for 22 |  Saints3-5 | 7.8 | Preseason 7.8 → now 6.5 | 6.5 | −1.3 | 6 | 1408 | tied for 18 |
| tied for 24 |  Falcons3-6 | 8.1 | Preseason 8.1 → now 6.4 | 6.4 | −1.7 | 6 | 1435 | 20 |
| tied for 24 |  Cardinals3-6 | 5.7 | Preseason 5.7 → now 6.4 | 6.4 | +0.7 | 6 | 1384 | 27 |
| 26 |  Commanders2-5-1 | 7.6 | Preseason 7.6 → now 5.6 | 5.6 | −2.0 | 5 | 1420 | tied for 21 |
| 27 |  Colts2-7 | 7.7 | Preseason 7.7 → now 5.2 | 5.2 | −2.5 | 4 | 1386 | 29 |
| 28 |  Eagles2-7 | 10.0 | Preseason 10.0 → now 4.8 | 4.8 | −5.1 | 4 | 1395 | 14 |
| 29 |  Jets2-7 | 5.3 | Preseason 5.3 → now 4 | 4 | −1.3 | 4 | 1325 | 5 |
| 30 |  Dolphins1-7 | 7.2 | Preseason 7.2 → now 3.6 | 3.6 | −3.6 | 2 | 1360 | 4 |
| 31 |  Titans1-7 | 5.5 | Preseason 5.5 → now 3.2 | 3.2 | −2.3 | 2 | 1297 | 10 |
| 32 |  Chargers0-8 | 8.6 | Preseason 8.6 → now 3.0 | 3.0 | −5.5 | 0 | 1371 | tied for 21 |
- Now
- Current
- Chg
- Change
- Pace
- On pace for (wins, at the current win rate)
- Rem SoS
- Remaining SoS Rank (1 = hardest)