2026 MLB Win Projections

How many games every team is projected to win.

Updated Oct 20, 2026, 4:33 AM ET

At a glance

Final wins vs the preseason projection

Most above: +22.0wins; Rays; 76.0 → 98
Most below: −18.0wins; Blue Jays; 97.0 → 79

Projected wins

Final regular-season win totals, averaged over 25,000 simulated seasons.

PreseasonFinal

Rank	Team		Pre-season to final (regular season)
1	Brewers103-59	95.3	Preseason 95.3 → final 103	103	+7.7	103	1616	20
2	Dodgers100-62	102.4	Preseason 102.4 → final 100	100	−2.4	100	1571	22
3	Rays98-64	76.0	Preseason 76.0 → final 98	98	+22.0	98	1569	19
4	Braves94-68	82.5	Preseason 82.5 → final 94	94	+11.5	94	1528	11
5	Yankees93-68	90.3	Preseason 90.3 → final 93	93	+2.7	94	1559	16
6	Padres91-71	89.8	Preseason 89.8 → final 91	91	+1.2	91	1562	21
7	Cubs89-73	90.6	Preseason 90.6 → final 89	89	−1.6	89	1540	13
8	Phillies88-74	96.2	Preseason 96.2 → final 88	88	−8.2	88	1525	12
9	Red Sox87-75	91.3	Preseason 91.3 → final 87	87	−4.3	87	1529	14
10	Diamondbacks86-76	82.6	Preseason 82.6 → final 86	86	+3.4	86	1516	15
11	Guardians85-77	87.6	Preseason 87.6 → final 85	85	−2.6	85	1518	28
12	White Sox84-78	67.3	Preseason 67.3 → final 84	84	+16.7	84	1513	24
13	Pirates82-80	77.7	Preseason 77.7 → final 82	82	+4.3	82	1513	9
14	Astros81-81	82.2	Preseason 82.2 → final 81	81	−1.2	81	1491	30
tied for 15	Marlins80-82	78.3	Preseason 78.3 → final 80	80	+1.7	80	1500	7
tied for 15	Rangers80-82	85.1	Preseason 85.1 → final 80	80	−5.1	80	1478	29
tied for 17	Orioles79-82	74.8	Preseason 74.8 → final 79	79	+4.2	79	1509	10
tied for 17	Blue Jays79-83	97.0	Preseason 97.0 → final 79	79	−18.0	79	1499	tied for 5
tied for 19	Nationals77-85	60.1	Preseason 60.1 → final 77	77	+16.9	77	1480	tied for 5
tied for 19	Cardinals77-85	70.5	Preseason 70.5 → final 77	77	+6.5	77	1474	3
tied for 19	Twins77-85	67.4	Preseason 67.4 → final 77	77	+9.6	77	1466	17
tied for 22	Tigers76-86	78.6	Preseason 78.6 → final 76	76	−2.6	76	1505	23
tied for 22	Mariners76-86	91.2	Preseason 91.2 → final 76	76	−15.2	76	1462	26
24	Reds75-87	82.2	Preseason 82.2 → final 75	75	−7.2	75	1454	1
25	Mets74-88	81.6	Preseason 81.6 → final 74	74	−7.6	74	1507	8
26	Royals69-93	85.8	Preseason 85.8 → final 69	69	−16.8	69	1453	18
27	Giants65-97	81.9	Preseason 81.9 → final 65	65	−16.9	65	1451	4
28	Athletics64-98	80.0	Preseason 80.0 → final 64	64	−16.0	64	1396	27
29	Angels62-100	61.0	Preseason 61.0 → final 62	62	+1.0	62	1426	25
30	Rockies58-104	43.8	Preseason 43.8 → final 58	58	+14.2	58	1388	2

Chg: Change
Pace: On pace for (wins, at the current win rate)
SoS Rk: SoS Played Rank